Futures Rise as Oil Drops and Gold Breaks Higher

NEW YORK - U.S. futures pointed higher before Wednesday's open as crude gave back a large piece of the Hormuz conflict premium, while gold, silver and copper climbed with the dollar lower.

The split is the trading day in one sentence. Lower oil prices reduced the immediate inflation shock from the Strait of Hormuz standoff, but the metal bid showed investors still wanted hard assets while Middle East transit risk remained unresolved.

Yesterday's Close

The S&P 500 finished at 7,259.22, up 0.81%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,326.13, up 1.03%, and the Dow closed at 49,298.25, up 0.73%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.75% to 2,845.00.

The move was broad enough to matter, but tech still led the tape. AMD's SEC-filed release said first quarter revenue rose 38% from a year earlier to $10.3 billion, with Data Center revenue up 57%. That kept AI infrastructure demand near the center of the equity move instead of turning Wednesday into a pure oil reversal story.

Palantir also stayed on the watch list after its SEC-filed release said U.S. revenue grew 104% year over year to $1.282 billion and the company raised full year 2026 revenue guidance. Shopify gave traders a different read on growth expectations. Its SEC-filed release said revenue grew 34% to $3.17 billion and gross merchandise volume cleared $100 billion in the first quarter, but the company guided second quarter revenue growth to a high twenties percentage rate.

PayPal's release added a payments read-through. The company said net revenue rose 7% to $8.4 billion and total payment volume rose 11% to $464.0 billion, while GAAP operating income fell 3% and operating margin contracted 182 basis points.

Overnight

Asia and Europe followed the U.S. equity bid. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.38%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.22%, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.17%, and South Korea's KOSPI jumped 6.45%.

Europe traded firmer into the U.S. morning. The FTSE 100 rose 2.56%, Germany's DAX rose 2.82%, France's CAC 40 rose 3.30%, and the Stoxx 600 gained 2.62%.

FX helped explain the cross-asset move. The dollar index fell 0.76% to 97.727, EUR/USD rose 0.82% to 1.1788, and USD/JPY fell 0.71% to 156.081. A softer dollar mechanically supports dollar-priced metals and eases some pressure on non-U.S. assets.

Pre-Market U.S.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.93% to 7,355. Nasdaq futures rose 1.59% to 28,582, and Dow futures rose 1.12% to 49,969.

The futures move had two drivers. First, WTI fell 11.32% to $90.69 and Brent fell 10.69% to $98.13, reversing part of the prior Hormuz spike. Second, AMD's earnings release gave traders a fresh company-level reason to keep buying the AI infrastructure chain.

The EIA said the Strait of Hormuz moved 21 million barrels per day of oil in 2022, equal to about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. It also said the United States imported about 0.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from Persian Gulf countries through the strait in 2022, equal to about 11% of U.S. crude oil and condensate imports. That is why even partial changes in shipping risk can move U.S. gasoline, diesel, airline and logistics costs.

By the Numbers

Bitcoin traded at $82,504, up 1.95% over 24 hours. Ether traded at $2,410, up 2.08%.

Gold rose 3.65% to $4,722. Silver rose 6.84% to $78.11, and copper rose 4.20% to $6.1925. Natural gas fell 2.76% to $2.711.

The 10-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.416%, down 0.3 basis point. The VIX fell 6.44% to 16.26.

Photo by Szaaman, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain)

Today's Calendar

At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release March state employment and unemployment data. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report materials are scheduled for 10:30 a.m. and after 1:00 p.m. ET.

The Federal Reserve calendar lists the CP Commercial Paper release at 1:00 p.m. ET and H.15 Selected Interest Rates at 4:15 p.m. ET. TreasuryDirect lists 3-year and 10-year securities with a May 6 announcement date and May 15 issue date.

The next two macro prints are more important for rates. BLS Productivity and Costs is scheduled for Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the April Employment Situation report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Why It Moved

Crude was the pressure valve. When oil fell more than 10%, traders had less need to price an immediate energy-driven inflation shock. For U.S. consumers, the mechanism runs through refinery input costs, gasoline prices, diesel prices and freight costs.

Metals told a different story. Gold, silver and copper rose while the dollar fell, which fits the normal mechanics of dollar-priced commodities. The unresolved Hormuz risk added a hard-asset bid without requiring a new central-bank signal.

Rates were steady because today's Fed calendar is statistical, not a policy decision. Traders get more labor-cost and payroll information on Thursday and Friday, and those releases matter more for Treasury pricing than Wednesday's calendar.

Company earnings kept the AI and commerce trades active. AMD tied its quarter to data-center demand. Palantir raised guidance after a sharp U.S. revenue increase. Shopify showed fast revenue growth but a slower second quarter growth target. PayPal posted higher payment volume while margins narrowed.

Company Lines Moving the Tape

"We delivered an outstanding first quarter, driven by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, with Data Center now the primary driver of our revenue and earnings growth." - Dr. Lisa Su, AMD chair and CEO, in the company's SEC-filed earnings release.

"Q1 delivered broad-based growth across geographies, merchant sizes, and channels, with over $100 billion of GMV in the first quarter alone." - Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify chief financial officer, in the company's SEC-filed earnings release.

"I am confident in our ability to put the company on a more durable path to long-term growth and shareholder value creation, and we are executing with urgency." - Enrique Lores, PayPal president and CEO, in the company's SEC-filed earnings release.

The Big Picture

Wednesday's setup is not one trade. It is a split tape: lower crude helps U.S. inflation math, weaker dollar supports metals and overseas assets, AI-linked earnings support tech, and Treasury yields are waiting for the next labor data.

For the U.S. open, watch whether Nasdaq strength holds if crude stabilizes near $90 WTI and $98 Brent. If oil rebounds while the dollar stays lower, the inflation relief trade gets harder to maintain.